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China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $98.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $779.1KEvent: China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
0.1¢
Alina Charaeva
99.9¢
Qinwen Zheng
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection26Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:234 trades$396.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Qinwen Zheng · $79.9K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$113.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLQinwen Zheng$50.2K@ 100¢·0xc1acc1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Qinwen Zheng pressure: $75.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$75.0K
6h
−$144.5K
tracked
$396.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: Qinwen Zheng · $79.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 69

Since latest large flow: -17.1pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Qinwen Zheng or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alina Charaeva and Qinwen Zheng in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Qinwen Zheng. This market will resolve to 'Qinwen Zheng' if Qinwen Zheng advances against Alina Charaeva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Qinwen Zheng2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Qinwen Zheng@ 85.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -19.0pp
Latest book event: Alina Charaeva DOWN 5.4pp · near-book depth $1 → $1 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alina Charaeva; negative values favor Qinwen Zheng. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hQinwen Zheng · $75.0K
6hQinwen Zheng · $144.5K
24hQinwen Zheng · $144.5K

Alina Charaeva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alina Charaeva price. Qinwen Zheng fills are converted to the complementary Alina Charaeva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h15.7¢▼ below by 15.6pp
VWAP 7d15.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alina Charaeva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.7K
30¢
$25.8K
25¢
$38.3K
20¢
$12.1K
15¢
$71.0K
10¢
$56.2K
5¢
$96.0K
0¢
← now
$93.3K

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLQinwen Zheng$50.2K@ 99.9¢
0xc1acc10x7f61…293d
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$47.0K@ 90.5¢
yupiiiiiiiii0x44a1…bd21
🐋—5 minutes ago
SELLQinwen Zheng$11.7K@ 96.0¢
bluemario0x34a1…7622
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$11.1K@ 96.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$17.6K@ 88.0¢
0xc1acc10x7f61…293d
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$14.9K@ 91.0¢0xc260…550b🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYQinwen Zheng$19.9K@ 84.0¢
bluemario0x34a1…7622
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

yupiiiiiiiiiQinwen Zheng$47.0K
BUY VWAP 90.5¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesQinwen Zheng$35.4K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·17 fills
0xc1acc1Qinwen Zheng$26.4K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·3 fills
FlaznorpQinwen Zheng$22.6K
BUY VWAP 94.8¢·5 fills
bluemarioQinwen Zheng$19.9K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·1 fill
0xwiseAlina Charaeva$16.6K
BUY VWAP 23.6¢·6 fills
dmoralezQinwen Zheng$15.5K
BUY VWAP 91.6¢·11 fills
0xc260…550bQinwen Zheng$14.9K
BUY VWAP 91.0¢·1 fill
jtwyslljyQinwen Zheng$12.4K
BUY VWAP 72.9¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Qinwen Zheng$11.1K
BUY VWAP 67.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.