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LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $285.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $490.9KEvent: LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
100.0¢
FlyQuest
0.1¢
Shopify Rebellion
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets13Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:150 trades$250.6K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FlyQuest · $9.9K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$77.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLFlyQuest$27.4K@ 100¢·aomendushen008

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Shopify Rebellion pressure: $7.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.7K
6h
+$5.2K
tracked
$250.6K

11 verified profitable wallets: FlyQuest · $9.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Shopify Rebellion or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 16:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win Game 1 against Shopify Rebellion.

•This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win Game 1 against FlyQuest.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 3 match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win Game 1 against Shopify Rebellion. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion" if Shopify Rebellion win Game 1 against FlyQuest. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 7, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Diabolical-Prize2 linked markets · $109.2K gross
Lucas1tb3 linked markets · $60.8K gross
aomendushen0082 linked markets · $52.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FlyQuest; negative values favor Shopify Rebellion. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hShopify Rebellion · $7.7K
6hFlyQuest · $5.2K
24hFlyQuest · $5.2K

FlyQuest price VWAP

Volume-weighted FlyQuest price. Shopify Rebellion fills are converted to the complementary FlyQuest probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h86.6¢▲ above by 13.3pp
VWAP 7d86.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FlyQuest price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$130.1K
90¢
$20.1K
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.9K
75¢
$14.7K
70¢
$12.5K
65¢
$56.7K
60¢
$13.7K
55¢
$100
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFlyQuest$27.4K@ 99.9¢
aomendushen0080xd3f1…7535
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLFlyQuest$21.3K@ 99.9¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

aomendushen008FlyQuest$20.8K
BUY VWAP 80.3¢·5 fills
five5120FlyQuest$14.2K
BUY VWAP 87.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.