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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $419.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $642.2KEvent: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou
0.1¢
Mattia Bellucci
100.0¢
Yi Zhou
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection28Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:188 trades$207.2K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Mattia Bellucci · $47.8K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$86.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMattia Bellucci$16.6K@ 65¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Mattia Bellucci pressure: $58.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$58.3K
6h
+$42.2K
tracked
$207.2K

14 verified profitable wallets: Mattia Bellucci · $47.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mattia Bellucci or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Yi Zhou in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Yi Zhou. This market will resolve to 'Yi Zhou' if Yi Zhou advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Yi Zhou DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $43.3K → $1.7K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Yi Zhou. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMattia Bellucci · $58.3K
6hMattia Bellucci · $42.2K
24hMattia Bellucci · $42.2K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Yi Zhou fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h53.7¢▼ below by 53.6pp
VWAP 7d53.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$7.3K
75¢
$26.6K
70¢
$24.3K
65¢
$53.6K
60¢
$6.3K
55¢
$1.0K
50¢
$19.2K
45¢
$22.1K
40¢
$11
35¢
$302
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$10.6K
20¢
$1
15¢
$15.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.9K
0¢
← now
$17.3K

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMattia Bellucci$16.6K@ 65.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYi Zhou$13.6K@ 27.5¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLMattia Bellucci$10.4K@ 67.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsYi Zhou$23.5K
BUY VWAP 28.8¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardMattia Bellucci$22.4K
BUY VWAP 67.7¢·6 fills
0x2c33…0563Mattia Bellucci$18.7K
BUY VWAP 22.1¢·2 fills
fkcvffcjtMattia Bellucci$18.3K
BUY VWAP 53.4¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardYi Zhou$14.0K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.