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LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $572.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $415.9KEvent: LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage
0.1¢
HANJIN BRION
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly73Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets45Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:364 trades$221.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $12.9K net·16 wallets(1🐋)·$28.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNatus Vincere$22.7K@ 100¢·0xd016…6114

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

HANJIN BRION pressure: $4.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$4.7K
6h
+$15.7K
tracked
$221.8K

16 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $12.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +30.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 30.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from HANJIN BRION or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION" if HANJIN BRION win Game 1 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against HANJIN BRION.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 3 match between HANJIN BRION and Natus Vincere in the Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "HANJIN BRION" if HANJIN BRION win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against HANJIN BRION. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 20, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 6, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lucas1tb2 linked markets · $51.6K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $50.0K gross
0xd016…61142 linked markets · $48.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Natus Vincere1h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Natus Vincere@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Natus Vincere DOWN 4.4pp · near-book depth $153 → $2.6K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor HANJIN BRION; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHANJIN BRION · $4.7K
6hHANJIN BRION · $15.7K
24hHANJIN BRION · $18.8K

HANJIN BRION price VWAP

Volume-weighted HANJIN BRION price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary HANJIN BRION probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h25.5¢▼ below by 25.5pp
VWAP 7d25.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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HANJIN BRION price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$3.6K
70¢
$41.9K
65¢
$6.6K
60¢
$634
55¢
$4.0K
50¢
$5.2K
45¢
$9.2K
40¢
$17.1K
35¢
$202
30¢
$2.3K
25¢
$159
20¢
$3.5K
15¢
$1.8K
10¢
$555
5¢
$780
0¢
← now
$124.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNatus Vincere$22.7K@ 99.9¢0xd016…6114🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLNatus Vincere$16.2K@ 99.9¢
Lucas1tb0xe1f3…5402
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$13.3K@ 99.8¢
fkgggg2mouzfuria0x52ec…a6f3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$15.0K@ 99.6¢
Lucas1tb0xe1f3…5402
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$12.7K@ 98.8¢0xd016…6114🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNatus Vincere$12.4K@ 60.0¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYHANJIN BRION$10.0K@ 70.4¢
five51200xc1c7…f0a7
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lucas1tbNatus Vincere$15.0K
BUY VWAP 99.6¢·1 fill
fkgggg2mouzfuriaNatus Vincere$14.4K
BUY VWAP 83.5¢·2 fills
0xd016…6114Natus Vincere$12.7K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill
fkcvffcjtNatus Vincere$12.4K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
five5120HANJIN BRION$10.0K
BUY VWAP 70.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.