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China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $783.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $632.3KEvent: China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka
99.9¢
Karolina Muchova
1.0¢
Naomi Osaka
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:269 trades$194.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karolina Muchova · $18.6K net·12 wallets·$78.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLKarolina Muchova$18.0K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Naomi Osaka pressure: $13.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$13.5K
6h
+$14.8K
tracked
$194.0K

12 verified profitable wallets: Karolina Muchova · $18.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Naomi Osaka or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Muchova and Naomi Osaka in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Muchova' if Karolina Muchova advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Karolina Muchova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Naomi Osaka DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $1 → $3 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karolina Muchova; negative values favor Naomi Osaka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNaomi Osaka · $13.5K
6hKarolina Muchova · $14.8K
24hKarolina Muchova · $16.5K

Karolina Muchova price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karolina Muchova price. Naomi Osaka fills are converted to the complementary Karolina Muchova probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h67.1¢▲ above by 32.8pp
VWAP 7d67.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karolina Muchova price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$30.5K
90¢
$3.3K
85¢
$14.2K
80¢
$8.8K
75¢
$13.7K
70¢
$5.4K
65¢
$3.6K
60¢
$21.2K
55¢
$47.8K
50¢
$20.3K
45¢
$217
40¢
$4.6K
35¢
$11.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.2K
20¢
$6.9K
15¢
$370
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLKarolina Muchova$18.0K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—2 minutes ago
BUYKarolina Muchova$14.0K@ 89.0¢
PlayD3320x796a…0365
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYKarolina Muchova$10.6K@ 59.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RN1Karolina Muchova$17.0K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·5 fills
PlayD332Karolina Muchova$14.0K
BUY VWAP 89.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesKarolina Muchova$12.3K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·15 fills
KkunnKarolina Muchova$10.6K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.