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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $57.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $672.5KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz
0.1¢
Jiri Lehecka
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets77Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:205 trades$288.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $66.4K net·13 wallets·$85.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K@ 76¢·0xeaa2…670e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $51.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$51.8K
6h
+$86.8K
tracked
$288.3K

13 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $66.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-13 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Jiri Lehecka. This market will resolve to 'Jiri Lehecka' if Jiri Lehecka advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 76.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Carlos Alcaraz UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $41.5K → $175 · 7s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Jiri Lehecka. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $51.8K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $86.8K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $126.0K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Jiri Lehecka fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h79.2¢▲ above by 20.8pp
VWAP 7d79.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.4K
90¢
$23.5K
85¢
$39.2K
80¢
$12.8K
75¢
$132.3K
70¢
$4.4K
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$36.6K
55¢
$4.5K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K@ 76.0¢0xeaa2…670e🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 76.5¢
talento100xf255…dce1
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$10.0K@ 78.1¢
Cuco840xf3b0…23a1
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$41.3K
BUY VWAP 78.5¢·21 fills
0xeaa2…670eCarlos Alcaraz$18.0K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardCarlos Alcaraz$15.0K
BUY VWAP 82.8¢·6 fills
rytoreCarlos Alcaraz$13.6K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·2 fills
0xwiseJiri Lehecka$12.0K
BUY VWAP 34.1¢·3 fills
0xad7f…0988Jiri Lehecka$10.9K
BUY VWAP 31.9¢·3 fills
beeemwCarlos Alcaraz$10.6K
BUY VWAP 77.6¢·2 fills
talento10Carlos Alcaraz$10.0K
BUY VWAP 76.5¢·1 fill
Cuco84Carlos Alcaraz$10.0K
BUY VWAP 78.1¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.