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Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $1.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $122.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
95.5¢
FURIA
4.5¢
9z
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets16Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution59Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:19 trades$43.8K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FURIA · $484 net·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFURIA$11.4K@ 44¢·Waynats

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$43
6h
+$4.9K
tracked
$43.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: FURIA · $484 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 5 match between FURIA and 9z in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 7, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA wins 2 or more maps than 9z in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "9z". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 21, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 7, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x648c…ca8a2 linked markets · $15.6K gross
0xheavy8882 linked markets · $13.1K gross
0x29b5…cc6c2 linked markets · $12.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FURIA DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $36 → $428 · 24s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FURIA; negative values favor 9z. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h9z · $43
6hFURIA · $4.9K
24hFURIA · $6.6K

FURIA price VWAP

Volume-weighted FURIA price. 9z fills are converted to the complementary FURIA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.5¢
VWAP 24h43.4¢▲ above by 52.1pp
VWAP 7d43.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FURIA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$4
65¢
$43
60¢
$4
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$5.5K
40¢
$37.1K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFURIA$11.4K@ 44.5¢
Waynats0x1192…1406
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUY9z$10.0K@ 58.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
98.9¢$604.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner
53.0¢$387.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner
96.5¢$127.8Kpriority69Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner
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China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
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Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f4629z$15.0K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·2 fills
WaynatsFURIA$11.4K
BUY VWAP 44.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.