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Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $14.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $159.8KEvent: Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

11.0¢
YES
89.0¢
NO
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets91Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution62Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:40 trades$34.1K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 40s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $3.9K net·4 wallets·$4.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$5.0K@ 86¢·pakukudolphi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.8K
6h
−$12.8K
tracked
$34.1K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 80% · priority 61

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 18.6pp · near-book depth $11.3K → $11.8K · 68s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.8K
6hNO · $12.8K
24hNO · $18.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.0¢
VWAP 24h12.3¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d12.11¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$3.1K
15¢
$2.0K
10¢
← now
$22.3K
5¢
$6.2K
0¢
$4.6K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.