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Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

● quote just now
Politics→Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $106.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $62.9KEvent: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
56.1¢
YES
43.9¢
NO
1.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$45.0K trackedsource coverage 71%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 278 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $497 net·4 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$7.9K@ 40¢·westdo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.7K
tracked
$45.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: YES · $497 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 278 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Bigggggggg7 linked markets · $7.8K gross
0x1664…c71c8 linked markets · $4.6K gross
Hourglass9 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $1.7K
24hYES · $24.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.1¢
VWAP 24h58.4¢▼ below by 2.3pp
VWAP 7d55.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$283
55¢
← now
$51.0K
50¢
$37.8K
45¢
$6.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$13.3K@ 50.7¢0x00ec…8240🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 48.1¢0xcffe…cad8🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KrangYes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.