PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Olbia: Matyas Cerny vs Vadym Ursu

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $164.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $650.7KEvent: Olbia: Matyas Cerny vs Vadym Ursu
100.0¢
Matyas Cerny
0.1¢
Vadym Ursu
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets4Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$258.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Vadym Ursu · $3.1K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$73.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatyas Cerny$15.2K@ 37¢·kdvlklkvlsklkfs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vadym Ursu pressure: $14.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$14.5K
6h
+$8.4K
tracked
$258.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Vadym Ursu · $3.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • •Executable SELL price moved 16.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vadym Ursu or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-18 09:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matyas Cerny and Vadym Ursu in the Olbia, Italy, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 11, 2026 at 5:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matyas Cerny' if Matyas Cerny advances against Vadym Ursu. This market will resolve to 'Vadym Ursu' if Vadym Ursu advances against Matyas Cerny. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL Vadym Ursu@ 16.0¢48m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWSELL Matyas Cerny@ 83.0¢48m ago
15m UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Matyas Cerny1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Matyas Cerny1h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Matyas Cerny UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $4.4K → $12.8K · 25s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matyas Cerny; negative values favor Vadym Ursu. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVadym Ursu · $14.5K
6hMatyas Cerny · $8.4K
24hMatyas Cerny · $8.4K

Matyas Cerny price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matyas Cerny price. Vadym Ursu fills are converted to the complementary Matyas Cerny probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h45.0¢▲ above by 55.0pp
VWAP 7d45.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Matyas Cerny price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$3.7K
80¢
$38
75¢
$2
70¢
$36.0K
65¢
$14.7K
60¢
$8.2K
55¢
$14.6K
50¢
$3.4K
45¢
$32.9K
40¢
$16.4K
35¢
$35.8K
30¢
$45.6K
25¢
$17.6K
20¢
$29.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMatyas Cerny$10.9K@ 56.9¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVadym Ursu$13.7K@ 53.6¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatyas Cerny$15.2K@ 36.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatyas Cerny$15.1K@ 36.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMatyas Cerny$15.1K@ 33.7¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
81.5¢$1.7Mpriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Jaguars
23.5¢$798.0Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Bublik vs Brandon Nakashima
75.5¢$725.2Kpriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-11?
47.5¢$643.3Kpriority80Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
63.5¢$525.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys
100.0¢$514.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11?
45.5¢$508.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$422.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsMatyas Cerny$71.9K
BUY VWAP 34.6¢·7 fills
kdvlklkvlsklkfsVadym Ursu$28.7K
BUY VWAP 56.6¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesVadym Ursu$21.0K
BUY VWAP 71.8¢·23 fills
0x076d…8d4cMatyas Cerny$13.2K
BUY VWAP 58.2¢·4 fills
flatbarrelVadym Ursu$10.1K
BUY VWAP 63.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.