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UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 10 hoursLiquidity: $168.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $286.3KEvent: UFC 333: Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)

Indicative prices · 2 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Colby Thicknesse
0.05¢
Asaf Chopurov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection57Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 15 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:167 trades$77.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Asaf Chopurov · $2.8K net·15 wallets·$9.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLColby Thicknesse$15.5K@ 100¢·0x5ccc…7c77

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Asaf Chopurov pressure: $44.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$44.3K
6h
−$60.4K
tracked
$77.2K

15 verified profitable wallets: Asaf Chopurov · $2.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Asaf Chopurov or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Colby Thicknesse" if Colby Thicknesse is officially declared the winner of the fight against Asaf Chopurov at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Asaf Chopurov" if Asaf Chopurov is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Colby Thicknesse" if Colby Thicknesse is officially declared the winner of the fight against Asaf Chopurov at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Asaf Chopurov" if Asaf Chopurov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Colby Thicknesse UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $56 → $26 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Colby Thicknesse; negative values favor Asaf Chopurov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAsaf Chopurov · $44.3K
6hAsaf Chopurov · $60.4K
24hAsaf Chopurov · $61.0K

Colby Thicknesse price VWAP

Volume-weighted Colby Thicknesse price. Asaf Chopurov fills are converted to the complementary Colby Thicknesse probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h51.17¢▲ above by 48.8pp
VWAP 7d51.17¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Colby Thicknesse price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$29.3K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$1.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$506
30¢
$3.8K
25¢
$6.3K
20¢
$10.6K
15¢
$24.7K
10¢
$247
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLColby Thicknesse$15.5K@ 99.9¢0x5ccc…7c77🐋—28 minutes ago
SELLColby Thicknesse$10.7K@ 99.9¢0x76a0…fb5b🐋—32 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.