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Maia: Duje Ajdukovic vs Andrej Martin

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Maia: Duje Ajdukovic vs Andrej Martin
18.5¢
Duje Ajdukovic
81.5¢
Andrej Martin
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly95Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets92Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:26 trades$4.8K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Andrej Martin · $2.1K net·5 wallets·$2.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrej Martin$2.2K@ 35¢·UpTheBlues

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$69
6h
+$367
tracked
$4.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: Andrej Martin · $2.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-19 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Duje Ajdukovic and Andrej Martin in the Maia, Portugal, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Duje Ajdukovic' if Duje Ajdukovic advances against Andrej Martin. This market will resolve to 'Andrej Martin' if Andrej Martin advances against Duje Ajdukovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Andrej Martin UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $25.6K → $24.0K · 53s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Duje Ajdukovic; negative values favor Andrej Martin. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDuje Ajdukovic · $69
6hDuje Ajdukovic · $367
24hDuje Ajdukovic · $367

Duje Ajdukovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Duje Ajdukovic price. Andrej Martin fills are converted to the complementary Duje Ajdukovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h61.0¢▼ below by 42.5pp
VWAP 7d61.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Duje Ajdukovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$25
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2.7K
60¢
$16
55¢
$2.0K
50¢
$59
45¢
$12
40¢
$5
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.