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Spread: New Mexico (-4.5)

● quote 46s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $24.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $59.7KEvent: North Dakota State vs. New Mexico
52.5¢
New Mexico
47.5¢
North Dakota State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$29.0K trackedsource coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata 10s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorth Dakota State$8.0K@ 48¢·chanello

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$6.8K
tracked
$29.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: New Mexico · $11.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "North Dakota State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 24 at 10:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if New Mexico win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "North Dakota State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor New Mexico; negative values favor North Dakota State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNew Mexico · $0
6hNorth Dakota State · $6.8K
24hNorth Dakota State · $6.8K

New Mexico price VWAP

Volume-weighted New Mexico price. North Dakota State fills are converted to the complementary New Mexico probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h51.7¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d51.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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New Mexico price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$29.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoNew Mexico$11.0K
BUY VWAP 51.3¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.