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Maia: Lorenzo Giustino vs Zsombor Piros

● quote 18s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $668.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $169.2KEvent: Maia: Lorenzo Giustino vs Zsombor Piros
0.1¢
Lorenzo Giustino
100.0¢
Zsombor Piros
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets61Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:116 trades$60.0K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Zsombor Piros · $16.3K net·10 wallets(1🐋)·$26.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYZsombor Piros$13.5K@ 57¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Zsombor Piros pressure: $12.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$12.9K
6h
−$17.2K
tracked
$60.0K

10 verified profitable wallets: Zsombor Piros · $16.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Zsombor Piros or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-23 10:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Giustino and Zsombor Piros in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Giustino' if Lorenzo Giustino advances against Zsombor Piros. This market will resolve to 'Zsombor Piros' if Zsombor Piros advances against Lorenzo Giustino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Lorenzo Giustino DOWN 23.0pp · near-book depth $54 → $380 · 14s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Giustino; negative values favor Zsombor Piros. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hZsombor Piros · $12.9K
6hZsombor Piros · $17.2K
24hZsombor Piros · $17.2K

Lorenzo Giustino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Giustino price. Zsombor Piros fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Giustino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h36.0¢▼ below by 36.0pp
VWAP 7d36.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Giustino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$4.4K
60¢
$428
55¢
$1.7K
50¢
$1.1K
45¢
$14
40¢
$21.4K
35¢
$12.9K
30¢
$2.8K
25¢
$3.0K
20¢
$932
15¢
$349
10¢
$2.1K
5¢
$5.7K
0¢
← now
$3.3K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYZsombor Piros$13.5K@ 57.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—16 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Zsombor Piros$13.5K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.