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Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $178.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
0.1¢
Francisco Comesana
100.0¢
Thiago Seyboth Wild
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 22 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:354 trades$640.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Thiago Seyboth Wild · $78.1K net·22 wallets(2🐋)·$170.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$47.9K@ 77¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Francisco Comesana pressure: $18.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$18.3K
6h
−$210.5K
tracked
$640.3K

22 verified profitable wallets: Thiago Seyboth Wild · $78.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +7.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Francisco Comesana or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-24 20:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Comesana and Thiago Seyboth Wild in the Santa Cruz 2, originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Comesana' if Francisco Comesana advances against Thiago Seyboth Wild. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Seyboth Wild' if Thiago Seyboth Wild advances against Francisco Comesana. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Thiago Seyboth Wild@ 92.8¢5m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Francisco Comesana1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Francisco Comesana@ 22.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +21.0pp1h CONFIRMED +28.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Thiago Seyboth Wild@ 78.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -26.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
Latest book event: Francisco Comesana DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $245 → $0 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Francisco Comesana; negative values favor Thiago Seyboth Wild. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFrancisco Comesana · $18.3K
6hThiago Seyboth Wild · $210.5K
24hThiago Seyboth Wild · $210.4K

Francisco Comesana price VWAP

Volume-weighted Francisco Comesana price. Thiago Seyboth Wild fills are converted to the complementary Francisco Comesana probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h29.0¢▼ below by 28.9pp
VWAP 7d29.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Francisco Comesana price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$19
65¢
$12
60¢
$7.0K
55¢
$4.2K
50¢
$47.8K
45¢
$62.3K
40¢
$49.1K
35¢
$24.7K
30¢
$14.2K
25¢
$70.9K
20¢
$264.2K
15¢
$67.3K
10¢
$5.0K
5¢
$3.8K
0¢
← now
$21.9K

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFrancisco Comesana$15.9K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$19.6K@ 78.5¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLThiago Seyboth Wild$18.8K@ 71.3¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 81.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 80.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 80.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 78.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 80.0¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$47.9K@ 76.9¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$12.2K@ 75.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrancisco Comesana$12.3K@ 24.3¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFrancisco Comesana$12.3K@ 21.5¢
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjase0x5bfe…3258
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$20.2K@ 76.3¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
SELLFrancisco Comesana$21.0K@ 38.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYThiago Seyboth Wild$10.0K@ 55.7¢
12341620x45e4…3c69
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYFrancisco Comesana$10.0K@ 45.2¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseThiago Seyboth Wild$153.3K
BUY VWAP 78.4¢·27 fills
ferrariChampions2026Thiago Seyboth Wild$53.9K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·3 fills
robustmstFrancisco Comesana$43.5K
BUY VWAP 47.8¢·7 fills
xyxx0asdkasdkooajasdnajsdvbnjaseFrancisco Comesana$42.5K
BUY VWAP 23.4¢·5 fills
askilikaThiago Seyboth Wild$39.0K
BUY VWAP 79.2¢·8 fills
ferrariChampions2026Francisco Comesana$33.5K
BUY VWAP 45.5¢·13 fills
UpTheBluesThiago Seyboth Wild$24.9K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·20 fills
robustmstThiago Seyboth Wild$20.2K
BUY VWAP 76.3¢·1 fill
RN1Thiago Seyboth Wild$16.7K
BUY VWAP 75.8¢·2 fills
1234162Thiago Seyboth Wild$15.0K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.