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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 20 daysLiquidity: $467.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: Brazil Presidential Election

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

20.5¢
YES
79.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly11Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets41Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 73 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1507 trades$383.6K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 9 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $273.0K net·73 wallets(7🐋)·$508.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$101.3K@ 12¢·unknwnfnd

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$138
6h
−$2.8K
tracked
$383.6K

73 verified profitable wallets: NO · $273.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
Outcome meaning

•This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
eventalpha262 linked markets · $156.3K gross
Lolakis2 linked markets · $123.1K gross
MisTKy2 linked markets · $102.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

COUNTER FLOWBUY NO@ 80.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 44.0¢22d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 43.0¢22d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 43.0¢22d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $53.9K → $24.0K · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $138
6hNO · $2.8K
24hNO · $97.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h18.26¢▲ above by 2.2pp
VWAP 7d20.73¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$97.7K
40¢
$722.7K
35¢
$463.7K
30¢
$13.0K
25¢
$96.0K
20¢
← now
$1.7M
15¢
$1.8M
10¢
$791.9K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.6K@ 81.0¢
aaabbb0x2b51…e165
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$13.6K@ 24.25¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYYES$17.9K@ 17.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYYES$17.3K@ 17.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$33.0K@ 83.0¢
ivantoney0x2616…c6aa
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYNO$10.8K@ 82.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$13.7K@ 80.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$15.1K@ 20.0¢
wagwanshawty0xe571…f17b
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 80.24¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—1 day ago
BUYYES$22.5K@ 24.94¢
Jmeryn0x6606…c102
🐋—1 day ago
BUYNO$11.8K@ 79.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$19.0K@ 80.0¢
themain0x2f9d…deb3
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$11.4K@ 80.0¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—4 days ago
SELLNO$11.9K@ 80.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$21.9K@ 81.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 20.0¢
joaonicoleti0x9e74…fd0f
🐋—5 days ago
SELLYES$13.2K@ 22.0¢
joaonicoleti0x9e74…fd0f
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$21.5K@ 79.81¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 80.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$12.2K@ 20.0¢
tiagsluiz10x13d2…1344
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$24.3K@ 81.0¢
tennisclub0x479d…d469
🐋—7 days ago
SELLYES$12.7K@ 20.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 20.0¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—7 days ago
SELLYES$25.6K@ 20.58¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—7 days ago
SELLYES$10.1K@ 22.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 78.0¢
kirito000xedcd…2507
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$13.1K@ 77.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 22.53¢0x35be…c77f🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$13.5K@ 80.0¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$33.3K@ 79.0¢
nojnn0x7f9e…3a0e
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$16.0K@ 77.0¢
themain0x2f9d…deb3
🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 22.0¢
Simpsons20260x5f14…c52a
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$24.1K@ 24.69¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$24.3K@ 24.29¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$24.1K@ 24.14¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$19.8K@ 80.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 19.65¢
Abkhauae0x7c75…4d1d
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 17.0¢
ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 84.0¢
pantomime0xd039…2532
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$85.0K@ 85.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—11 days ago
BUYYES$13.2K@ 14.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—11 days ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 11.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—15 days ago
SELLNO$55.2K@ 89.0¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—15 days ago
BUYNO$44.5K@ 89.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$12.0K@ 12.0¢0x8b4b…541b🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$11.7K@ 13.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$11.7K@ 13.0¢
eventalpha260x2e7b…bd8c
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 87.0¢
StudentMoney0xfb51…742d
🐋—16 days ago
BUYYES$17.2K@ 14.0¢
The-Joker0x9aeb…2729
🐋—17 days ago
SELLYES$101.3K@ 12.27¢
unknwnfnd0xbc75…3f69
🐋—17 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

joaonicoletiYes$60.7K
BUY VWAP 21.06¢·18 fills
MisTKyNo$42.2K
BUY VWAP 81.42¢·8 fills
StarryPathNo$40.5K
BUY VWAP 79.73¢·3 fills
eventalpha26Yes$40.1K
BUY VWAP 20.06¢·7 fills
MisTKyYes$39.3K
BUY VWAP 21.37¢·40 fills
timetowanderNo$33.7K
BUY VWAP 80.29¢·2 fills
ivantoneyNo$33.2K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·2 fills
themainNo$29.2K
BUY VWAP 78.93¢·3 fills
aHjCzNo$28.4K
BUY VWAP 79.28¢·213 fills
JmerynYes$26.6K
BUY VWAP 25.03¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.