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Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima

● quote 14s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $600.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $810.7KEvent: Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Brandon Nakashima
100.0¢
Flavio Cobolli
0.1¢
Brandon Nakashima
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:168 trades$340.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Brandon Nakashima · $18.3K net·7 wallets·$51.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlavio Cobolli$25.0K@ 52¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Flavio Cobolli pressure: $13.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$13.1K
6h
+$19.3K
tracked
$340.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: Brandon Nakashima · $18.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +15.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 15.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Flavio Cobolli or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-30 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Flavio Cobolli and Brandon Nakashima in the Lyon Open, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Flavio Cobolli' if Flavio Cobolli advances against Brandon Nakashima. This market will resolve to 'Brandon Nakashima' if Brandon Nakashima advances against Flavio Cobolli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $7.3K gross
0x2758…2e482 linked markets · $6.2K gross
0x8563…5e982 linked markets · $93 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 85.0¢16m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Flavio Cobolli28m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Flavio Cobolli28m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Flavio Cobolli@ 60.0¢55m ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp
Latest book event: Flavio Cobolli UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $4.7K → $45.8K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Flavio Cobolli; negative values favor Brandon Nakashima. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFlavio Cobolli · $13.1K
6hFlavio Cobolli · $19.3K
24hFlavio Cobolli · $3.6K

Flavio Cobolli price VWAP

Volume-weighted Flavio Cobolli price. Brandon Nakashima fills are converted to the complementary Flavio Cobolli probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h55.1¢▲ above by 44.8pp
VWAP 7d55.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Flavio Cobolli price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$33.0K
90¢
$9.4K
85¢
$39.7K
80¢
$1.8K
75¢
$2.9K
70¢
$11.4K
65¢
$8.3K
60¢
$2.4K
55¢
$1.2K
50¢
$35.2K
45¢
$43.6K
40¢
$61.4K
35¢
$43.5K
30¢
$26.4K
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$1.2K
15¢
$16.2K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLFlavio Cobolli$20.7K@ 85.8¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—28 minutes ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$23.9K@ 48.4¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$25.0K@ 51.7¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLFlavio Cobolli$15.9K@ 16.7¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$22.4K@ 40.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFlavio Cobolli$16.0K@ 41.0¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstFlavio Cobolli$87.4K
BUY VWAP 45.3¢·5 fills
0x076d…8d4cBrandon Nakashima$19.3K
BUY VWAP 63.8¢·3 fills
UpTheBluesBrandon Nakashima$17.1K
BUY VWAP 58.9¢·12 fills
kkookkooBrandon Nakashima$14.6K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·2 fills
redvinnyFlavio Cobolli$12.5K
BUY VWAP 66.4¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesFlavio Cobolli$12.5K
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Brandon Nakashima$10.6K
BUY VWAP 53.3¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.