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Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: 36 minutesLiquidity: $36.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $74.1KEvent: Raptors vs. Timberwolves

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

3.7¢
YES
96.3¢
NO
6.4¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution43Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$66.2K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 89%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$17.1K@ 95¢·brunomedm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $10.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$10.7K
6h
−$66.2K
tracked
$66.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $9.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
6.4¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 50 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.4¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-25 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kawhi Leonard records more than 3.5 assists during the game.

•This market will resolve to "No" if Kawhi Leonard records 3.5 assists or fewer during the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 25 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kawhi Leonard records more than 3.5 assists during the game. This market will resolve to "No" if Kawhi Leonard records 3.5 assists or fewer during the game. The entire game including all overtime periods will be considered. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. If the player is listed as inactive or otherwise does not take the court at any point, the market will resolve "No". The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo11 linked markets · $253.5K gross
HomeRunHazard13 linked markets · $90.3K gross
Zzzz874 linked markets · $67.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.0¢51m ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $10.7K
6hNO · $66.2K
24hNO · $66.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.7¢
VWAP 24h4.42¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d4.42¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$27.7K
0¢
← now
$38.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$10.4K@ 96.0¢
dwdwdwdwwwdaa0x869a…0ac7
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$17.1K@ 95.0¢
brunomedm0x3e85…788b
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

brunomedmNo$17.1K
BUY VWAP 95.0¢·1 fill
dwdwdwdwwwdaaNo$10.4K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.