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Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)

● quote 100 min ago
Sports→SoccerCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $70.6KEvent: 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets

Indicative prices · 100 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

4.0¢
FC Bayern München
99.9¢
1. FSV Mainz 05
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets35Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$15.0K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 115 min agoofficial metadata 102 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:1. FSV Mainz 05 · $4.0K net·4 wallets·$9.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY1. FSV Mainz 05$5.5K@ 43¢·Flaznorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$5.8K
tracked
$15.0K

4 verified profitable wallets: 1. FSV Mainz 05 · $4.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote is 100 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 115 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 102 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FSV Mainz 05".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for November 7 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Bayern München" if FC Bayern München win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "1. FSV Mainz 05". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $24.3K gross
Flaznorp11 linked markets · $23.0K gross
0x8191…da722 linked markets · $10.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: FC Bayern München DOWN 15.0pp · near-book depth $19 → $3 · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Bayern München; negative values favor 1. FSV Mainz 05. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFC Bayern München · $0
6h1. FSV Mainz 05 · $5.8K
24h1. FSV Mainz 05 · $2.5K

FC Bayern München price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Bayern München price. 1. FSV Mainz 05 fills are converted to the complementary FC Bayern München probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.0¢
VWAP 24h58.85¢▼ below by 54.9pp
VWAP 7d58.06¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Bayern München price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$17
85¢
$574
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$2
60¢
$3.1K
55¢
$11.2K
50¢
$1
45¢
$1.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$60

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.