PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz

Sports→TennisSettlement: Carlos AlcarazLiquidity: $161.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $736.4KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz
0.0¢
Karen Khachanov payout
100.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:186 trades$330.2K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 73 min agoofficial metadata 59 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $19.1K net·11 wallets·$46.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLCarlos Alcaraz$32.6K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Carlos Alcaraz. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-03 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Karen Khachanov and Carlos Alcaraz in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Karen Khachanov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 59m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 59m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $96 gross
0xde96…190c2 linked markets · $54 gross
0x5d63…90753 linked markets · $6 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Carlos Alcaraz3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp1h CONFIRMED +37.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 79.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
Latest book event: Carlos Alcaraz UP 3.9pp · near-book depth $83.7K → $8.9K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karen Khachanov; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKaren Khachanov · $71.4K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $26.8K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $26.8K

Karen Khachanov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karen Khachanov price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Karen Khachanov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h9.87¢▼ below by 9.9pp
VWAP 7d9.88¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Karen Khachanov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$6.7K
30¢
$1.6K
25¢
$3.9K
20¢
$41.5K
15¢
$75.0K
10¢
$8.4K
5¢
$76.0K
0¢
← now
$117.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$24.9K@ 99.9¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$32.6K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCarlos Alcaraz$31.5K@ 99.9¢
phkjjd0x8fbc…5c63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.5K@ 94.5¢
phkjjd0x8fbc…5c63
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$25.0K@ 76.61¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$12.3K@ 82.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$17.6K@ 83.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage
0.05¢$2.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs
0.05¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B
0.05¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Astra Invicta (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B
0.05¢$979.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova
—$913.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs
—$689.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Erste Bank Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse
—$587.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
3.15¢$566.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

phkjjdCarlos Alcaraz$28.4K
BUY VWAP 94.60¢·3 fills
kkookkooCarlos Alcaraz$25.0K
BUY VWAP 76.61¢·1 fill
0F62Carlos Alcaraz$17.6K
BUY VWAP 83.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesCarlos Alcaraz$16.1K
BUY VWAP 91.11¢·9 fills
tennischampCarlos Alcaraz$14.5K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·2 fills
dmoralezCarlos Alcaraz$12.9K
BUY VWAP 84.77¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.