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Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?

● quote 158 min ago
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 8 monthsLiquidity: $22.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $15.0KEvent: Netanyahu out by...?

Indicative prices · 158 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

70.0¢
YES
30.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$12 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 618 min agoofficial metadata 897 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $158 net·3 wallets·$363 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$8.5K@ 69¢·brightly

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$12

3 verified profitable wallets: YES · $158 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Executable quote is 158 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 618 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 897 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-07-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
lizhigan2 linked markets · $7.8K gross
dhadad012 linked markets · $760 gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $438 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $1

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.0¢
VWAP 24h75.11¢▼ below by 5.1pp
VWAP 7d46.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$7
70¢
← now
$206
65¢
$8.5K
60¢
$31
55¢
$23
50¢
$312
45¢
$49
40¢
$50.6K
35¢
$4.3K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.