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Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · League of LegendsCloses: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $286.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $261.9KEvent: LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
LYON
99.95¢
LOS
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$107.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 115 min agoofficial metadata 31s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:LOS · $5.3K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$31.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLYON$48.0K@ 48¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$64.5K
tracked
$107.5K

7 verified profitable wallets: LOS · $5.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest market sweep: +38.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 115 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 00:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON wins 2 or more games than LOS in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LOS".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between LOS and LYON in the Worlds Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON wins 2 or more games than LOS in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LOS". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 31, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining games required to decide the match, including a game in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 11h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1113 linked markets · $410.1K gross
0x549b…c0ae2 linked markets · $130.5K gross
Username21333 linked markets · $124.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY LOS2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY LOS@ 62.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY LYON@ 50.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -12.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: LYON DOWN 9.5pp · near-book depth $26 → $6 · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LYON; negative values favor LOS. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLYON · $0
6hLYON · $64.5K
24hLYON · $64.4K

LYON price VWAP

Volume-weighted LYON price. LOS fills are converted to the complementary LYON probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h43.84¢▼ below by 43.8pp
VWAP 7d43.84¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LYON price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$68
45¢
$96.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$165
25¢
$148
20¢
$184
15¢
$2.3K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.7K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLYON$11.5K@ 49.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLYON$48.0K@ 48.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYLYON$12.5K@ 49.0¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
0.05¢$3.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
45.5¢$2.7Mpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
99.95¢$1.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
99.95¢$40.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
0.05¢$15.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)
0.05¢$2.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
76ers vs. Hornets
54.5¢$1.2Mpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Tallon Griekspoor vs Benjamin Bonzi
—$737.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111LYON$59.5K
BUY VWAP 48.19¢·2 fills
yishiwuchengLOS$13.2K
BUY VWAP 56.44¢·3 fills
StarryPathLYON$12.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.