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Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

Sports→BasketballSettlement: WizardsLiquidity: $199.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $339.7KEvent: Wizards vs. Hawks
0.0¢
Hawks payout
100.0¢
Wizards payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:33 trades$149.1K tracked21% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1148 min agoofficial metadata 1112 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Hawks · $8.7K net·6 wallets(2🐋)·$82.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHawks$38.9K@ 48¢·ropetard

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Wizards. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-07 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Wizards and Hawks, originally scheduled for Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Wizards". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 19h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 19h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ropetard6 linked markets · $168.8K gross
mooseborzoi8 linked markets · $88.2K gross
takeormake8 linked markets · $36.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Hawks@ 47.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Wizards@ 53.0¢22h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Hawks@ 51.0¢23h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
PROVEN EARLY MOVERBUY Wizards@ 55.0¢23h ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Wizards UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $944 → $263 · 88s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawks; negative values favor Wizards. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hWizards · $1
6hHawks · $42.2K
24hHawks · $42.1K

Hawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawks price. Wizards fills are converted to the complementary Hawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h47.91¢▼ below by 47.9pp
VWAP 7d47.91¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$10
55¢
$3
50¢
$15.8K
45¢
$133.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1
10¢
$54
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHawks$10.9K@ 47.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYHawks$18.6K@ 47.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 22 hours ago
BUYWizards$22.6K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 22 hours ago
SELLWizards$11.4K@ 49.19¢
bwgringo0x54ce…9f80
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYHawks$38.9K@ 47.62¢
ropetard0x2c86…d939
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYWizards$12.6K@ 54.0¢
bwgringo0x54ce…9f80
🐋—about 23 hours ago
BUYWizards$11.7K@ 51.81¢
ropetard0x2c86…d939
🐋—about 23 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ropetardHawks$45.4K
BUY VWAP 47.67¢·2 fills
mooseborzoiHawks$34.4K
BUY VWAP 47.01¢·6 fills
ferrariChampions2026Wizards$22.6K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
bwgringoWizards$12.6K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
ropetardWizards$11.7K
BUY VWAP 51.81¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.