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Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

● quote 34s ago
Politics→Geopolitics→ElectionsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $87.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $33.9KEvent: Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Indicative prices · 34s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

4.35¢
YES
95.65¢
NO
1.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets55Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 17 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:58 trades$4.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $20.5K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$26.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$22.1K@ 98¢·scottilicious

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$155
tracked
$4.4K

17 verified profitable wallets: NO · $20.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.1¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-28 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 35d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 42d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 43d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
denizz3 linked markets · $329.6K gross
dromedaryy2 linked markets · $304.5K gross
0x122c…fbed4 linked markets · $169.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.9¢60d ago
15m STALLED -0.4pp1h STALLED -0.4pp6h STALLED -0.1pp24h STALLED -0.5pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $8
6hYES · $155
24hYES · $3.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current4.35¢
VWAP 24h4.83¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d2.84¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$149
5¢
$13.0K
0¢
← now
$242.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$22.1K@ 97.52¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—7 days ago
SELLNO$16.7K@ 97.49¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$14.8K@ 98.41¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$13.3K@ 98.5¢
afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643
🐋—28 days ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 97.16¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$13.5K@ 98.06¢
Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$39.9K@ 95.68¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$17.7K@ 95.78¢
aff30xe52c…6924
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BiggggggggNo$21.5K
BUY VWAP 98.42¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.