1010011
0x2783e38aa7b7d1ba8a7f3cef36bed993f3138321
+$9.0K
Real PnL
+9.5%
ROI
$5.0K
Volume
$95.0K
Invested
71.4%
YES Bias
7
Trades (DB)
39/52
Markets Won
whale0Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24h
Open positions:26 markets·current value $13.4K·51 closed
PnL by Market (77)26 open51 closed
● open No · $2.9Kin $3.0Kout $38unreal +$37
● open Yes · $2.9Kin $3.8Kout $1.0Kunreal +$52
● open No · $2.2Kin $2.2Kunreal +$31
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
● open Yes · $1.3Kin $1.3Kunreal +$9
● open No · $924in $930unreal $-5
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
● open No · $783in $786unreal $-4
Trump out as President by April 30?
● open No · $538in $536unreal +$2
● open No · $453in $454unreal $-1
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
● open Yes · $435in $409unreal +$26
● open No · $249in $248unreal +$2
● open No · $229in $823out $596unreal +$4
US x China Military clash before 2027?
● open No · $94in $92unreal +$2
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
● open No · $86in $87unreal $-2
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
● open No · $10out $48unreal $-0
● open No · $47in $45unreal +$1
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
● open No · $49in $519out $475unreal +$2
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?
● open No · $49in $45unreal +$4
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
● open No · $56in $49unreal +$8
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in March?
● open No · $8in $8unreal $-0
● open No · $8in $7unreal +$1
US recession by end of 2026?
● open No · $1in $1unreal $-0
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
● open No · $1in $1unreal +$0
● open No · $1in $1unreal +$0
● open No · $1in $1unreal +$0
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?
● open No · $1in $2out $1unreal +$0
● open No · $10in $5unreal +$5
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
● closedin $3.9Kout $8.9K
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
● closedin $720out $4.7K
● closedout $3.4K
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
● closedout $3.0K
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
● closedout $3.0K
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
● closedout $1.3K
Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
● closedout $1.0K
● closedin $32.4Kout $33.3K
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28?
● closedin $996out $1.3K
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?
● closedin $148out $0
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
● closedin $6.4Kout $6.5K
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
● closedout $48
● closedin $14.2Kout $14.2K
● closedin $2.5Kout $2.5K
● closedin $1.1Kout $1.2K
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
● closedin $1.3Kout $1.3K
Will four or more people dissent the March Fed decision?
● closedin $685out $701
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?
● closedin $96out $80
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
● closedin $2.6Kout $2.6K
● closedin $90out $100
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?
● closedin $8
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
● closedin $7.0Kout $7.0K
● closedin $87out $82
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
● closedin $96out $100
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2?
● closedin $996out $1.0K
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
● closedin $83out $86
Government shutdown on Saturday?
● closedin $3
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
● closedin $570out $573
● closedin $682out $685
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?
● closedin $998out $1.0K
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13?
● closedin $900out $902
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?
● closedin $9out $10
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?
● closedout $1
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?
● closedin $9out $10
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?
● closedin $1
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?
● closedin $1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
● closedin $9out $8
● closedin $2out $3
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
● closedin $1out $2
● closedin $7out $7
● closedin $850out $849
● closedin $9out $9
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
● closedin $2out $2
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
● closedin $39out $39
● closedin $9out $9
● closedin $1out $1
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?
● closedin $1out $1
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?
● closedin $1out $1
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
● closedin $9out $9
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?
● closed
● closedin $94out $94
| Market | Invested | Received | Unrealized | Trades | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? ●open No· $2.9K | $3.0K | $38 | +$37 | 28 | $-2875 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? ●open Yes· $2.9K | $3.8K | $1.0K | +$52 | 22 | $-2786 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? ●open No· $2.2K | $2.2K | $0 | +$31 | 24 | $-2134 |
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition ●open Yes· $1.3K | $1.3K | $0 | +$9 | 1 | $-1278 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? ●open No· $924 | $930 | $0 | $-5 | 1 | $-935 |
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? ●open No· $783 | $786 | $0 | $-4 | 4 | $-790 |
Trump out as President by April 30? ●open No· $538 | $536 | $0 | +$2 | 10 | $-533 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? ●open No· $453 | $454 | $0 | $-1 | 6 | $-456 |
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)? ●open Yes· $435 | $409 | $0 | +$26 | 2 | $-383 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? ●open No· $249 | $248 | $0 | +$2 | 1 | $-246 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? ●open No· $229 | $823 | $596 | +$4 | 9 | $-223 |
US x China Military clash before 2027? ●open No· $94 | $92 | $0 | +$2 | 1 | $-91 |
China x Japan military clash before 2027? ●open No· $86 | $87 | $0 | $-2 | 1 | $-89 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? ●open No· $10 | $0 | $48 | $-0 | 2 | +$48 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? ●open No· $47 | $45 | $0 | +$1 | 2 | $-44 |
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? ●open No· $49 | $519 | $475 | +$2 | 7 | $-42 |
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? ●open No· $49 | $45 | $0 | +$4 | 1 | $-41 |
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? ●open No· $56 | $49 | $0 | +$8 | 3 | $-41 |
Will the US add at least 100k jobs in March? ●open No· $8 | $8 | $0 | $-0 | 2 | $-8 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? ●open No· $8 | $7 | $0 | +$1 | 1 | $-6 |
US recession by end of 2026? ●open No· $1 | $1 | $0 | $-0 | 1 | $-1 |
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? ●open No· $1 | $1 | $0 | +$0 | 1 | $-1 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? ●open No· $1 | $1 | $0 | +$0 | 1 | $-1 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? ●open No· $1 | $1 | $0 | +$0 | 1 | $-1 |
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? ●open No· $1 | $2 | $1 | +$0 | 3 | $-1 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? ●open No· $10 | $5 | $0 | +$5 | 3 | $-1 |
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? ● closed | $3.9K | $8.9K | — | 22 | +$5.0K |
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? ● closed | $720 | $4.7K | — | 8 | +$4.0K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $0 | $3.4K | — | 1 | +$3.4K |
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $3.0K | — | 0 | +$3.0K |
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? ● closed | $0 | $3.0K | — | 0 | +$3.0K |
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $0 | $1.3K | — | 1 | +$1.3K |
Will Tetsuo Saito be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? ● closed | $0 | $1.0K | — | 0 | +$1.0K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $32.4K | $33.3K | — | 69 | +$850 |
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28? ● closed | $996 | $1.3K | — | 2 | +$302 |
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February? ● closed | $148 | $0 | — | 7 | $-148 |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? ● closed | $6.4K | $6.5K | — | 17 | +$68 |
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? ● closed | $0 | $48 | — | 1 | +$48 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? ● closed | $14.2K | $14.2K | — | 15 | +$34 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? ● closed | $2.5K | $2.5K | — | 13 | +$23 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? ● closed | $1.1K | $1.2K | — | 8 | +$23 |
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $1.3K | $1.3K | — | 26 | +$22 |
Will four or more people dissent the March Fed decision? ● closed | $685 | $701 | — | 18 | +$16 |
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision? ● closed | $96 | $80 | — | 6 | $-16 |
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $2.6K | $2.6K | — | 20 | +$15 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? ● closed | $90 | $100 | — | 1 | +$10 |
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision? ● closed | $8 | $0 | — | 1 | $-8 |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? ● closed | $7.0K | $7.0K | — | 1 | +$7 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? ● closed | $87 | $82 | — | 2 | $-5 |
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting? ● closed | $96 | $100 | — | 1 | +$4 |
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? ● closed | $996 | $1.0K | — | 4 | +$4 |
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? ● closed | $83 | $86 | — | 2 | +$3 |
Government shutdown on Saturday? ● closed | $3 | $0 | — | 1 | $-3 |
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? ● closed | $570 | $573 | — | 3 | +$3 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? ● closed | $682 | $685 | — | 11 | +$3 |
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28? ● closed | $998 | $1.0K | — | 1 | +$2 |
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 13? ● closed | $900 | $902 | — | 3 | +$2 |
Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? ● closed | $9 | $10 | — | 1 | +$2 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? ● closed | $0 | $1 | — | 0 | +$1 |
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference? ● closed | $9 | $10 | — | 1 | +$1 |
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? ● closed | $1 | $0 | — | 1 | $-1 |
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday? ● closed | $1 | $0 | — | 1 | $-1 |
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? ● closed | $9 | $8 | — | 2 | $-1 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? ● closed | $2 | $3 | — | 25 | +$1 |
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? ● closed | $1 | $2 | — | 1 | +$1 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? ● closed | $7 | $7 | — | 3 | +$0 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? ● closed | $850 | $849 | — | 8 | $-0 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? ● closed | $9 | $9 | — | 2 | +$0 |
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? ● closed | $2 | $2 | — | 4 | $-0 |
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? ● closed | $39 | $39 | — | 2 | +$0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? ● closed | $9 | $9 | — | 2 | +$0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? ● closed | $1 | $1 | — | 2 | +$0 |
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve? ● closed | $1 | $1 | — | 2 | +$0 |
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision? ● closed | $1 | $1 | — | 2 | $-0 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ● closed | $9 | $9 | — | 3 | +$0 |
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? ● closed | $0 | $0 | — | 0 | +$0 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? ● closed | $94 | $94 | — | 2 | +$0 |
Recent Trades (12)
YES$899@ 99.9¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
YES$996@ 99.6¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
YES$697@ 99.6¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
YES$996@ 99.6¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
YES$996@ 99.6¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?11 days ago
Trading Activity · 90d
4 active days
Category Accuracy
Entry Timing Before Resolution
1d–7d
2 betsunresolved0/0
>7d
5 betsunresolved0/0
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