Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

● quote 14 min ago

Finance→Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $131.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $25.8KEvent: Fed rate cut by...?

0.9¢

YES

99.2¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%

24h sample:26 trades$29.5K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 121 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$13.6K@ 99¢·bobe2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

+$7

tracked

$29.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Executable quote is 14 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 121 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-10-08 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $7

24hNO · $26.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.9¢

VWAP 24h0.8¢▲ above by 0.1pp

VWAP 7d1.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

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45¢

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35¢

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0¢

← now

$41.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

BUYNO$13.6K@ 99.3¢

bobe20xed10…d2e5

🐋—about 23 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bobe2No$27.8K

BUY VWAP 99.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.