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Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?

Finance→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $189.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $84.2KEvent: Fed rate cut by...?
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:3 trades$24.7K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 228 min agoofficial metadata 117 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $24.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$24.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$16.4K@ 100¢·bobe2

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-08 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $24.7K
24hNO · $24.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$163.7K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$15.7K@ 99.9¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYNO$16.4K@ 99.6¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$15.1K@ 99.5¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—12 days ago
SELLNO$11.6K@ 99.3¢
AlexiosV0xf6ea…0a00
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$13.6K@ 99.3¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—19 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

classifiedNo$24.7K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills
AhpoNo$11.5K
BUY VWAP 99.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.