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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote 21s ago
Finance→Politics→Closes: 18 daysLiquidity: $653.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.4MEvent: Fed Decision in September?
53.5¢
YES
46.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly29Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority36Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 30 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1835 trades$1.3M tracked2% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 47s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $80.4K net·30 wallets(6🐋)·$681.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$92.1K@ 68¢·0xdac7…d26a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.2K
6h
+$68.6K
tracked
$1.3M

30 verified profitable wallets: NO · $80.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 36

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
timetowander5 linked markets · $482.6K gross
TheReturnOfDarthMaul3 linked markets · $345.6K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $213.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY YES@ 49.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 52.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 52.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 48.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.2K
6hYES · $68.6K
24hYES · $246.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h55.9¢▼ below by 2.4pp
VWAP 7d61.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$142.0K
70¢
$1.2M
65¢
$2.0M
60¢
$963.9K
55¢
$316.5K
50¢
← now
$539.3K
45¢
$279.2K
40¢
$39.1K
35¢
$17.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$13.4K@ 50.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋—about 4 hours ago
SELLYES$13.0K@ 49.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYYES$18.4K@ 49.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYNO$20.4K@ 50.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYYES$12.3K@ 48.0¢
larkspur0xcbc5…e175
🐋—about 11 hours ago
SELLYES$14.5K@ 46.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYYES$19.3K@ 48.7¢
PF100X0xef2d…2a45
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYYES$17.6K@ 52.0¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 51.5¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$19.5K@ 51.1¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$14.6K@ 53.0¢
T310x4e66…668f
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 54.0¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$22.9K@ 54.3¢
Larpital0x42f4…12c7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$13.7K@ 54.0¢
hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh0x0111…60f7
🐋—about 14 hours ago
SELLYES$10.6K@ 55.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$10.4K@ 54.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 54.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 53.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 14 hours ago
BUYYES$23.0K@ 55.2¢
wangtoutou0x7339…4132
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYYES$15.4K@ 57.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 60.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLYES$19.2K@ 65.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLYES$20.0K@ 67.2¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYYES$20.5K@ 69.0¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋—about 15 hours ago
SELLYES$24.0K@ 67.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋—about 17 hours ago
SELLYES$10.3K@ 68.0¢
BrevanHoward0x0a26…1851
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYYES$55.1K@ 69.0¢
Melody6260xecaa…77a9
🐋—about 21 hours ago
SELLYES$14.4K@ 68.0¢
truthteller0x30e4…5102
🐋—about 24 hours ago
SELLYES$40.9K@ 66.9¢0xf559…f462🐋—1 day ago
SELLYES$14.4K@ 67.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$20.8K@ 67.0¢
robau0x212f…7fd2
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 66.0¢
BrevanHoward0x0a26…1851
🐋—2 days ago
BUYYES$12.7K@ 65.0¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—2 days ago
SELLYES$32.0K@ 64.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$10.7K@ 65.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—3 days ago
SELLYES$13.0K@ 65.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$14.7K@ 68.0¢
zkH-9530x29f1…78b8
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$46.7K@ 66.6¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$17.3K@ 67.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$19.8K@ 66.0¢
mr.ozi0x614d…1546
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$20.7K@ 65.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—4 days ago
SELLYES$23.8K@ 64.0¢
wangtoutou0x7339…4132
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$39.1K@ 36.0¢
GDJHAV0xece0…a64d
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$19.7K@ 67.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$31.8K@ 68.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$47.0K@ 32.0¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—5 days ago
BUYYES$80.0K@ 69.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—6 days ago
SELLYES$92.1K@ 68.0¢0xdac7…d26a🐋—6 days ago
BUYYES$20.7K@ 69.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$12.7K@ 68.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋—7 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

timetowanderNo$162.2K
BUY VWAP 39.1¢·82 fills
LarpitalYes$105.4K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·8 fills
gaven-willwinYes$102.9K
BUY VWAP 67.2¢·5 fills
0xf559…f462Yes$100.9K
BUY VWAP 65.3¢·3 fills
foodenjoyerYes$64.0K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·2 fills
Melody626Yes$55.1K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill
coali10No$48.3K
BUY VWAP 32.0¢·2 fills
robauYes$46.5K
BUY VWAP 63.7¢·8 fills
GDJHAVNo$39.4K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·2 fills
TwoEyesYes$33.9K
BUY VWAP 52.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.