Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote 81 min ago
FinanceCloses: about 1 monthLiquidity: $536.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $138.3KEvent: Fed Decision in September?
24.5¢
YES
75.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:130 trades$59.3K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 103 min agoofficial metadata 82 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$12.6K·12 wallets(4🐋)·$149.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$47.7K@ 37¢·ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$5
6h
−$737
tracked
$59.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: +$12.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 81 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 103 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 82 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
foodenjoyer3 linked markets · $295.2K gross
timetowander5 linked markets · $186.3K gross
TheReturnOfDarthMaul2 linked markets · $124.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 41.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -9.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 43.0¢4d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp24h INVALIDATED -7.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 44.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 41.0¢5d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5
6h$737
24h+$3.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.5¢
VWAP 24h24.3¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d35.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$46.1K
50¢
$15.3K
45¢
$21.2K
40¢
$392.0K
35¢
$472.1K
30¢
$211.6K
25¢
$165.3K
20¢
← now
$52.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNO$11.4K@ 75.0¢0xbdc3…c0ea🐋about 21 hours ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 73.0¢0xbdc3…c0ea🐋1 day ago
SELLYES$10.6K@ 27.0¢0x2b2d…1031🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$11.9K@ 71.0¢0xa667…84fe🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$14.8K@ 68.0¢0xa667…84fe🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$14.6K@ 68.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋2 days ago
BUYNO$18.8K@ 69.4¢0xcbc5…e175🐋3 days ago
BUYYES$10.1K@ 34.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋3 days ago
BUYNO$14.0K@ 70.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋3 days ago
SELLYES$12.4K@ 31.0¢0xe033…40a5🐋3 days ago
BUYYES$20.0K@ 39.2¢0xeee1…3e28🐋4 days ago
BUYYES$17.8K@ 40.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋4 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 60.0¢0x997d…5d15🐋4 days ago
BUYYES$19.7K@ 41.0¢0xc3ca…688e🐋4 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 40.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋4 days ago
BUYNO$13.6K@ 60.0¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋4 days ago
BUYYES$34.0K@ 40.0¢
yungstalin0xa022…77f8
🐋4 days ago
BUYNO$13.0K@ 59.2¢0xc121…183c🐋5 days ago
BUYNO$41.7K@ 57.0¢
monkeyking420x0c68…9e76
🐋5 days ago
SELLNO$15.2K@ 56.0¢0xbdc3…c0ea🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$13.2K@ 44.0¢0x1058…01c1🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$13.0K@ 42.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$11.7K@ 40.0¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$17.2K@ 38.4¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 38.0¢0xc3ca…688e🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$15.2K@ 38.0¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$47.7K@ 37.0¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$28.6K@ 35.0¢
ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418
🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$15.2K@ 35.0¢0xc3da…41fe🐋5 days ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 35.0¢0xc3da…41fe🐋5 days ago
BUYNO$10.3K@ 65.0¢
gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8
🐋5 days ago
SELLYES$10.5K@ 35.0¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋6 days ago
BUYYES$18.5K@ 35.0¢0x71ed…d338🐋6 days ago
SELLYES$13.7K@ 49.0¢0xbdc3…c0ea🐋11 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 37.2¢·7 fills
BUY VWAP 37.8¢·32 fills
0x1058…01c1Yes$80.3K
BUY VWAP 41.4¢·38 fills
timetowanderNo$75.9K
BUY VWAP 67.9¢·30 fills
0xc3ca…688eYes$73.6K
BUY VWAP 38.9¢·18 fills
0xeee1…3e28Yes$50.7K
BUY VWAP 39.7¢·13 fills
monkeyking42No$47.9K
BUY VWAP 57.4¢·2 fills
0xc3da…41feYes$36.6K
BUY VWAP 35.2¢·4 fills
yungstalinYes$34.0K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill
BUY VWAP 68.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.