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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

● quote just now
Finance→Politics→Closes: 18 daysLiquidity: $536.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.2MEvent: Fed Decision in September?
42.5¢
YES
57.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1393 trades$1.1M tracked2% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $354.8K net·21 wallets(3🐋)·$454.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$56.7K@ 72¢·foodenjoyer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $5.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.3K
6h
−$42.4K
tracked
$1.1M

21 verified profitable wallets: NO · $354.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 52

Since latest accumulation: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
timetowander5 linked markets · $496.3K gross
TheReturnOfDarthMaul3 linked markets · $345.6K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $213.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 51.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 50.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 51.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $31.0K → $149.0K · 87s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $5.3K
6hNO · $42.4K
24hYES · $43.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h45.4¢▼ below by 2.9pp
VWAP 7d40.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.8K
55¢
$44.0K
50¢
$321.7K
45¢
$455.1K
40¢
← now
$533.0K
35¢
$599.0K
30¢
$1.1M
25¢
$822.1K
20¢
$152.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$12.9K@ 43.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—5 minutes ago
BUYNO$21.4K@ 56.0¢
monkeyking420x0c68…9e76
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 53.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 52.0¢
Kainvest0xdb38…ce37
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYYES$19.7K@ 50.0¢
Erasmus.0xc658…b784
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYYES$18.7K@ 51.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$18.4K@ 50.4¢
patrick7770x3f6c…bae3
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYYES$12.8K@ 51.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYYES$20.3K@ 50.8¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$18.0K@ 48.0¢
Ahpo0xcdb1…276c
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYNO$39.8K@ 51.3¢
patrick7770x3f6c…bae3
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$12.0K@ 51.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 52.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYNO$19.6K@ 51.8¢
patrick7770x3f6c…bae3
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$10.2K@ 48.0¢
jsmythyson0x2b2d…1031
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$17.9K@ 47.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$17.2K@ 46.3¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYNO$25.6K@ 55.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 19 hours ago
SELLNO$55.0K@ 61.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYNO$10.2K@ 68.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—about 19 hours ago
BUYYES$11.9K@ 30.0¢
DFRBSF0xd424…3927
🐋—about 20 hours ago
BUYNO$28.4K@ 72.4¢
totikk0xbb9f…bef0
🐋—about 22 hours ago
SELLYES$16.7K@ 30.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 69.0¢
qizhan0xcb84…4fbc
🐋—2 days ago
BUYNO$10.3K@ 69.0¢
qizhan0xcb84…4fbc
🐋—2 days ago
SELLYES$34.0K@ 34.0¢
CDAP10xe033…40a5
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$18.1K@ 35.0¢
DFRBSF0xd424…3927
🐋—3 days ago
SELLNO$21.0K@ 67.0¢
betwick0xc851…cd2a
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$16.6K@ 34.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$22.9K@ 33.0¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$10.1K@ 67.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$22.9K@ 33.0¢
Dreamlawn0xeee1…3e28
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$14.0K@ 33.4¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—5 days ago
BUYNO$19.3K@ 69.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 68.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$18.9K@ 30.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—8 days ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 28.2¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—8 days ago
BUYNO$28.1K@ 72.0¢
TwoEyes0xb1a2…372a
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$10.8K@ 28.3¢
TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$16.8K@ 27.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—9 days ago
SELLNO$17.7K@ 72.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$56.7K@ 72.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$11.5K@ 29.8¢
TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard0x1058…01c1
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 28.0¢
TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard0x1058…01c1
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 28.4¢
ThePrinceThatWasPromised0xc3ca…688e
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$13.8K@ 72.0¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$14.4K@ 72.0¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—10 days ago
SELLNO$18.9K@ 71.2¢
larkspur0xcbc5…e175
🐋—11 days ago
SELLNO$17.3K@ 70.3¢0xf559…f462🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$11.0K@ 25.6¢
TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard0x1058…01c1
🐋—12 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

timetowanderNo$319.7K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·186 fills
TheReturnOfDarthMaulYes$308.8K
BUY VWAP 40.2¢·143 fills
patrick777No$81.9K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·4 fills
CDAP1Yes$59.9K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·14 fills
ArmageddonRewardsBillyYes$53.6K
BUY VWAP 40.4¢·14 fills
DFRBSFYes$32.7K
BUY VWAP 32.7¢·3 fills
sorcerer.00Yes$32.0K
BUY VWAP 34.4¢·8 fills
totikkNo$28.4K
BUY VWAP 72.4¢·1 fill
sleepy-pandaNo$28.1K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·22 fills
AhpoYes$26.9K
BUY VWAP 41.2¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.