Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Geopolitics→Closes: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $100.3K24h Vol: $253.2K

8.6¢

YES

91.3¢

85.5¢

Spread

conv0Conviction — % of recent trades going one direction (30 min window)whale0Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24hedge0Edge Score — (Conviction + Whale) / 2, overall signal strengthmom0Momentum — trade frequency vs baseline (30 min window)

Price History

Orderbook YES/NO

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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Position ConcentrationWallets with ≥15% share of 7-day volume. >40% = single player dominates = manipulation risk or thin liquidity. Multiple large holders may indicate coordinated activity.

Top Holders · 7d

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Accumulation · 4h / 24h

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Live Tapeupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Whale Trades$10,000+Δ now

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