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Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: —Liquidity: $711Official 24h Vol: $44.6KEvent: Pro Football: Browns Week 1 Starting QB
3.0¢
YES
97.0¢
NO
3.4¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution68Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
24h sample:11 trades$6.5K trackedsource coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.1K@ 68¢·Winnnnnnning

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$2
6h
+$134
tracked
$6.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.4¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 3.4¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
Unavailable
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the player that is officially announced by the listed team to be the starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event that no starting quarterback is officially announced by the team, this market will resolve in favor of the listed quarterback who takes the field on the listed team’s first offensive play. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Cleveland Browns’ Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback who first directly receives a snap in the game. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the quarterback whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no official starter has taken the field within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL and/or the Cleveland Browns; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 11.7pp · near-book depth $0 → $42 · 112s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2
6hYES · $134
24hYES · $4.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h66.3¢▼ below by 63.2pp
VWAP 7d59.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$6.5K
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$105
30¢
$29
25¢
$10
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$5

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.