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Dota 2: summer bear vs Ducksquad (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $139.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $345.1KEvent: Dota 2: summer bear vs Ducksquad (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B
51.5¢
summer bear
48.5¢
Ducksquad
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:44 trades$157.6K tracked16% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 91 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:summer bear · $140.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$144.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYsummer bear$11.1K@ 59¢·0xb7e3…1a64

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$128.4K
tracked
$157.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: summer bear · $140.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 91 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win the match against Ducksquad.

•This market will resolve to "Ducksquad" if Ducksquad win the match against summer bear.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between summer bear and Ducksquad in the EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win the match against Ducksquad. This market will resolve to "Ducksquad" if Ducksquad win the match against summer bear. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb7e3…1a642 linked markets · $173.6K gross
0x4994…3e362 linked markets · $14.2K gross
0x3e85…788b2 linked markets · $6.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY summer bear@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY summer bear@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY summer bear@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Ducksquad DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $188 → $2.7K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor summer bear; negative values favor Ducksquad. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hsummer bear · $0
6hsummer bear · $128.4K
24hsummer bear · $128.4K

summer bear price VWAP

Volume-weighted summer bear price. Ducksquad fills are converted to the complementary summer bear probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h56.1¢▼ below by 4.6pp
VWAP 7d56.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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summer bear price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$7.8K
55¢
$100.9K
50¢
← now
$48.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 57.8¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 55.4¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 56.0¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 57.3¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 53.0¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$11.1K@ 59.5¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 51.0¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb7e3…1a64summer bear$142.4K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·33 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.