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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

● quote 1 min ago
Finance→Geopolitics→Closes: 14 daysLiquidity: $146.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.0KEvent: Crude Oil all time high by...?
1.4¢
YES
98.6¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$8.7K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$16.8K@ 98¢·gmtrader

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$1
6h
−$7.6K
tracked
$8.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $18.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Recent definition/status changes
RULES CHANGED · 6d ago
DEADLINE CHANGED · 26d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
XAEA12Archangel2 linked markets · $65.1K gross
ourdemocracy22 linked markets · $23.6K gross
ourdemocracy2 linked markets · $12.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET STATE6d ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.4¢46d ago
15m STALLED -0.6pp1h STALLED -0.4pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.6pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1
6hNO · $7.6K
24hNO · $7.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.4¢
VWAP 24h1.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d3.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$7.2K
0¢
← now
$205.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLNO$13.3K@ 95.3¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋—6 days ago
SELLNO$16.8K@ 97.8¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$10.3K@ 97.2¢
ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$13.5K@ 96.5¢
borchi0xbfb3…4b43
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$35.3K@ 95.0¢
kaanha0x4060…3ec3
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$11.3K@ 94.8¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

JfownskNo$10.1K
BUY VWAP 98.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.