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Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?

● quote 36s ago
Finance→Tech→Closes: 9 monthsLiquidity: $86.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.7KEvent: Anthropic IPO by __?
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly73Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$2.1K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 292 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $23.9K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$32.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$28.1K@ 100¢·Parz1vaI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $2.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$2.1K
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$2.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $23.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 18 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 292 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-07-01 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

•If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Dragontree2 linked markets · $27.1K gross
0x73bb…94732 linked markets · $2.1K gross
gambler9252 linked markets · $98 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $2.1K
6hYES · $2.1K
24hYES · $2.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$15.1K
10¢
$8.5K
5¢
$18.2K
0¢
← now
$201.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$24.8K@ 99.7¢
Dragontree0x2c39…56dc
🐋—4 days ago
SELLNO$28.1K@ 99.5¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—4 days ago
BUYNO$12.6K@ 99.3¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—9 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 99.3¢
WillBeQuant0xc6be…a0f3
🐋—16 days ago
BUYNO$14.2K@ 78.8¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$10.7K@ 91.0¢
Parz1vaI0xb100…6461
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DragontreeNo$24.8K
BUY VWAP 99.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.