PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Iran leadership change by September 30?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 15 daysLiquidity: $135.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.6KEvent: Iran leadership change by...?
1.9¢
YES
98.1¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 0%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $4.6K net·2 wallets·$6.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$32.5K@ 97¢·sharrdio

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$0

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $4.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 0% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 0 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 0% of tracked volume.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 26d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hYES · $0
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$2.2K
0¢
← now
$224.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$32.5K@ 97.4¢
sharrdio0xd5c1…5280
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$31.5K@ 97.4¢
KishoAriiii0xebd3…446d
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$24.2K@ 97.4¢
sharrdio0xd5c1…5280
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$24.0K@ 97.3¢
KishoAriiii0xebd3…446d
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$20.2K@ 97.5¢
sharrdio0xd5c1…5280
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$11.7K@ 97.5¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$16.0K@ 97.5¢
sharrdio0xd5c1…5280
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$11.6K@ 95.0¢
stupid220x8afa…adb6
🐋—about 1 month ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Iran leadership change by December 31?
14.5¢$61.6Kpriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
100.0¢$293.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17.5¢$274.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
89.5¢$165.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3.9¢$165.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.4¢$126.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
6.5¢$124.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.