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Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

● quote just now
Sports→Culture→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $5.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $57.4KEvent: Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
9.0¢
YES
91.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 780 min agoofficial metadata 1534 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.9K@ 86¢·0x1de9…831d

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $226 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 780 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1534 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gianni Infantino ceases to be the president of FIFA for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gianni Infantino ceases to be the president of FIFA for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Infantino's resignation or firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect. Announcements of intention to resign will qualify, regardless of if or when the resignation goes into effect. Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA or Gianni Infantino, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 19d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $1

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current9.0¢
VWAP 24h12.0¢▼ below by 3.0pp
VWAP 7d11.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$3.6K
10¢
$3.2K
5¢
← now
$214
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.