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Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur

● quote 57 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $674.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $679.9KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur

Indicative prices · 57 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.1¢
Alexander Zverev
99.9¢
Alex de Minaur
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets6Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:211 trades$216.6K trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $2.5K net·11 wallets·$41.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlex de Minaur$11.3K@ 99¢·0xbdcb…36c9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$43
6h
+$32.0K
tracked
$216.6K

11 verified profitable wallets: Alex de Minaur · $2.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 57 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 15:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
madkkee2 linked markets · $13.2K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $4.6K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $635 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Alexander Zverev DOWN 12.0pp · near-book depth $75 → $1 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Zverev; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Zverev · $43
6hAlexander Zverev · $32.0K
24hAlexander Zverev · $32.2K

Alexander Zverev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Zverev price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Zverev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h49.52¢▼ below by 49.4pp
VWAP 7d49.52¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Zverev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$187
75¢
$5.2K
70¢
$22.4K
65¢
$26.4K
60¢
$7.0K
55¢
$34.5K
50¢
$42.6K
45¢
$24.6K
40¢
$17.5K
35¢
$0
30¢
$2.3K
25¢
$2.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$10.2K
10¢
$4.5K
5¢
$1.7K
0¢
← now
$15.3K

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$11.3K@ 99.0¢0xbdcb…36c9🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesAlex de Minaur$34.0K
BUY VWAP 46.65¢·13 fills
big8betzAlexander Zverev$15.5K
BUY VWAP 54.32¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesAlexander Zverev$11.1K
BUY VWAP 41.53¢·13 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.