UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)

● quote 135 min ago
SportsCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $129.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $50.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
24h sample:91 trades$8.3K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 141 min agoofficial metadata 147 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDuško Todorovic (YES)$2.0K@ 41¢·VPenguin

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$638
6h
+$638
tracked
$8.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 135 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 141 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 147 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Duško Todorovic" if Duško Todorovic is officially declared the winner of the fight against Robert Valentin at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Robert Valentin" if Robert Valentin is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $446$41 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$638
6h+$638
24h+$638

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h37.4¢▼ below by 37.4pp
VWAP 7d37.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$4.4K
35¢
$367
30¢
$3.5K
25¢
$51
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs
0.1¢$1.8Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner
0.1¢$811.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
0.1¢$811.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$781.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)
100.0¢$380.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$356.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner
100.0¢$347.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.