UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)

● quote 183 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $324.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $359.6KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad (Featherweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection19Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:81 trades$23.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 191 min agoofficial metadata 183 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $17.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$17.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBogdan Grad (NO)$10.0K@ 63¢·wr0ngw4yb3tt0r

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.5K
6h
−$7.7K
tracked
$23.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$17.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 183 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 191 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 183 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Dennis Buzukja" if Dennis Buzukja is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bogdan Grad at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Bogdan Grad" if Bogdan Grad is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $97 → $1.6K · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4.5K
6h−$7.7K
24h−$16.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h32.7¢▼ below by 32.6pp
VWAP 7d32.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$13.8K
30¢
$7.2K
25¢
$19
20¢
$0
15¢
$492
10¢
$247
5¢
$364
0¢
← now
$1.3K

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBogdan Grad (NO)$10.0K@ 63.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rBogdan Grad$10.0K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.