UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

● quote 133 min ago

Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $587.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $205.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

23.5¢

YES

76.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:3 trades$69.0K tracked67% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 167 min agoofficial metadata 137 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNavajo Stirling (NO)$42.7K@ 75¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$69.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$69.0K

tracked

$69.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$42.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 133 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 167 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 137 minutes old.
•Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

resolving

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-02 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Jan Blachowicz" if Jan Blachowicz is officially declared the winner of the fight against Navajo Stirling at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Navajo Stirling" if Navajo Stirling is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

Outcome checks pending

LARGE FLOWBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

Outcome checks pending

LARGE FLOWBUY Navajo Stirling@ 77.0¢3h ago

Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$69.0K

6h−$69.0K

24h−$69.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current23.5¢

VWAP 24h24.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp

VWAP 7d24.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢