PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in August?

● quote 1 min ago
Finance→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $26.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $330Event: What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$28.7K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 521 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$28.7K@ 100¢·033033033

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$28.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 521 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of August 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0330330332 linked markets · $58.6K gross
0xc6a2…c9b72 linked markets · $5.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $28.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d0.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$31.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$28.7K@ 99.9¢
0330330330xd1c7…1d2b
🐋—about 9 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in August?
0.1¢$39priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
67.5¢$311.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.5¢$219.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
0.3¢$214.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
13.6¢$173.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3.6¢$173.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
30.5¢$121.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fed rate hike in 2026?
54.5¢$113.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

033033033No$28.7K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.