Fed rate hike in 2026?

● quote 290 min ago

Finance→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $241.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $220.1KEvent: Fed rate hike in 2026?

54.5¢

YES

45.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly4Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:194 trades$102.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 310 min agoofficial metadata 291 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$42.9K·12 wallets(3🐋)·$146.2K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$96.6K@ 64¢·foodenjoyer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$26

−$44.2K

tracked

$102.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: +$42.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Executable quote is 290 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 310 minutes old.
•Official market metadata is 291 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

active

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-12-09 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 45.0¢7h ago

15m STALLED +2.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 46.0¢3d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h INVALIDATED -6.0pp

LARGE FLOWSELL YES@ 52.0¢5d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 52.0¢5d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$26

6h−$44.2K

24h−$51.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current54.5¢

VWAP 24h56.0¢▼ below by 1.5pp

VWAP 7d54.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

$110

75¢

$108.3K

70¢

$25.6K