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Fed rate hike in 2026?

Finance→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $184.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $344.2KEvent: Fed rate hike in 2026?
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$162.2K@ 100¢·ratehikes

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-12-09 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

•This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 95.0¢12d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.0¢12d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 95.0¢12d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -0.4pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 93.0¢13d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $189.8K
6hNO · $214.0K
24hNO · $247.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h95.5¢▲ above by 4.5pp
VWAP 7d91.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$312.2K
90¢
$211.3K
85¢
$190.7K
80¢
$24.4K
75¢
$38.8K
70¢
$197.9K
65¢
$139.8K
60¢
$18.0K
55¢
$5.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$9.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLYES$162.2K@ 99.8¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—11 days ago
SELLYES$16.8K@ 82.4¢
ratehikes0xa309…4cf2
🐋—11 days ago
SELLYES$21.1K@ 99.9¢
Spiderman1617160x8663…cfac
🐋—11 days ago
SELLYES$13.9K@ 95.0¢
Kevin-Warsh0xaf15…5dd2
🐋—12 days ago
SELLYES$15.4K@ 95.0¢
Orionone0x552d…7d49
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$39.9K@ 95.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$10.5K@ 95.0¢
Solmaxi8888.sol0x7502…beaf
🐋—12 days ago
BUYYES$32.6K@ 94.0¢
Kevin-Warsh0xaf15…5dd2
🐋—12 days ago
SELLYES$63.7K@ 91.0¢
Mpire10x56ad…f13e
🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$30.2K@ 92.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$22.6K@ 89.0¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$19.0K@ 90.0¢
Spiderman1617160x8663…cfac
🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$23.2K@ 89.0¢
odsowner0xe3cb…ac21
🐋—14 days ago
BUYYES$43.2K@ 89.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—16 days ago
SELLYES$12.8K@ 70.4¢
simpleman0xbe89…b88c
🐋—17 days ago
SELLNO$22.4K@ 28.7¢
gjfiri4i4i40x33e6…89dc
🐋—23 days ago
BUYYES$35.5K@ 71.0¢
purplegatto0x032e…2a9e
🐋—26 days ago
BUYYES$11.3K@ 67.0¢
ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1
🐋—27 days ago
BUYYES$11.7K@ 66.0¢
50388131850x453a…81d2
🐋—27 days ago
BUYYES$10.7K@ 66.0¢
Novapm0x7e25…9712
🐋—28 days ago
BUYYES$11.7K@ 57.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$12.7K@ 43.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$41.0K@ 53.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$33.6K@ 50.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$12.6K@ 48.3¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$34.7K@ 45.0¢
99problems1230x0042…321e
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$20.0K@ 46.0¢
T310x4e66…668f
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$52.9K@ 52.8¢
pada0x714a…ab2f
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$41.4K@ 47.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$45.0K@ 50.0¢
ImJustKen0x9d84…1344
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$80.7K@ 52.1¢
pada0x714a…ab2f
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$23.1K@ 54.1¢
pada0x714a…ab2f
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$12.1K@ 67.0¢0x9ba7…00ef🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$13.2K@ 66.0¢
Melody6260xecaa…77a9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$10.5K@ 34.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$14.2K@ 64.0¢
Melody6260xecaa…77a9
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$96.6K@ 63.9¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$35.9K@ 62.0¢
foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$18.1K@ 62.0¢
Mpire10x56ad…f13e
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYYES$12.6K@ 62.0¢
Mpire10x56ad…f13e
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$28.4K@ 38.0¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$25.4K@ 37.0¢
coali100x7bc1…8db4
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$18.0K@ 36.0¢0x14f6…15c4🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLNO$15.3K@ 36.1¢
Palace87090x8c10…d7b3
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$16.1K@ 36.8¢
tetrose0x7447…a16d
🐋—about 2 months ago
SELLYES$11.6K@ 77.0¢
Warren-Buffett0x4478…02a4
🐋—2 months ago
SELLYES$16.6K@ 77.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—2 months ago
SELLYES$18.1K@ 77.0¢
sorcerer.000xeb6f…25f0
🐋—2 months ago
SELLYES$15.2K@ 76.0¢
tfg500x9ffe…8edd
🐋—2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.