National Bank Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar

● quote 77 min ago
FinanceCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $155.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $168.1KEvent: National Bank Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection69Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$21.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 81 min agoofficial metadata 78 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAnna Bondar (NO)$12.7K@ 69¢·0x26b4…b8a9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$15.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.1K
6h
−$15.2K
tracked
$21.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$9 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 77 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 81 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 78 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Anhelina Kalinina and Anna Bondar in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anhelina Kalinina' if Anhelina Kalinina advances against Anna Bondar. This market will resolve to 'Anna Bondar' if Anna Bondar advances against Anhelina Kalinina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $62$1 · 3s
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$15.1K
6h$15.2K
24h$15.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h37.2¢▼ below by 37.1pp
VWAP 7d37.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$945
45¢
$7.2K
40¢
$32
35¢
$30
30¢
$13.0K
25¢
$533
20¢
$30
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAnna Bondar (NO)$12.7K@ 69.0¢0x26b4…b8a9🐋about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
55.5¢$336.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.1¢$256.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 3?
100.0¢$255.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
42.5¢$219.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1.3¢$147.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
0.9¢$124.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
58.0¢$121.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fed rate hike in 2026?
67.5¢$63.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x26b4…b8a9Anna Bondar$12.7K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.