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Commanders vs. Cowboys

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 1 minuteLiquidity: $947.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $746.3KEvent: Commanders vs. Cowboys
34.5¢
Commanders
65.5¢
Cowboys
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection56Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority72Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 100%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:25 trades$1.0M tracked28% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Commanders · $46.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$63.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCowboys$352.3K@ 66¢·Elaran1993

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Cowboys SETUP
What the tape says

Cowboys pressure: $585.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$585.9K
6h
−$897.4K
tracked
$1.0M

2 verified profitable wallets: Commanders · $46.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 100% · priority 72

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cowboys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders".

•If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Cowboys wins, the market will resolve to "Cowboys". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Elaran19932 linked markets · $487.3K gross
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $201.0K gross
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $37.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Cowboys@ 66.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Cowboys@ 66.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 66.0¢12m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cowboys@ 66.0¢15m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Commanders; negative values favor Cowboys. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCowboys · $585.9K
6hCowboys · $897.4K
24hCowboys · $904.9K

Commanders price VWAP

Volume-weighted Commanders price. Cowboys fills are converted to the complementary Commanders probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h34.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d34.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Commanders price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$15.7K
30¢
← now
$1.0M
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCommanders$12.5K@ 35.0¢
jdfngkdjfnfd0x6f65…172c
🐋—3 minutes ago
BUYCowboys$118.1K@ 66.0¢0xb9c7…aade🐋—14 minutes ago
BUYCowboys$125.4K@ 66.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYCowboys$352.3K@ 66.0¢
Elaran19930xb727…2a9d
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYCommanders$54.9K@ 34.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$238.6K@ 66.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCowboys$117.9K@ 66.0¢
Tiger2000x6211…b89e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
53.5¢$246.6Kpriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
48.5¢$161.7Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
52.5¢$61.1Kpriority71Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 51.5
48.5¢$189priority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Commanders (-3.5)
23.5¢$120priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dolphins vs. 49ers
11.5¢$1.0Mpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Seahawks vs. Cardinals: O/U 41.5
47.5¢$440.7Kpriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Elaran1993Cowboys$477.7K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·2 fills
Tiger200Cowboys$359.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·3 fills
0xb9c7…aadeCowboys$118.1K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Commanders$54.9K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill
jdfngkdjfnfdCommanders$12.5K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.