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Spread: Packers (-5.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $343.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $31.1KEvent: Packers vs. Jets
34.5¢
Packers
65.5¢
Jets
11.0¢
Spread
anomaly96Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$55.4K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jets · $4.5K net·2 wallets·$4.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJets$16.2K@ 59¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Jets pressure: $1.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.6K
6h
−$9.9K
tracked
$55.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Jets · $4.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
11.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 11.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Jets or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Jets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz263 linked markets · $262.3K gross
Kch-Temp3 linked markets · $173.6K gross
0x2c33…05634 linked markets · $151.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jets@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Jets. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJets · $1.6K
6hJets · $9.9K
24hJets · $9.9K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Jets fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current34.5¢
VWAP 24h41.0¢▼ below by 6.5pp
VWAP 7d41.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$53.9K
35¢
$1.6K
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$11.9K@ 41.0¢
sifonman0x6ac9…e85a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJets$16.2K@ 59.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiJets$17.3K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·2 fills
sifonmanPackers$13.1K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.