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Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $440.4KEvent: Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs
28.0¢
YES
72.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets81Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution56Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$196.9K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 20s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $40.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$49.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$45.0K@ 67¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$51.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$51.5K
6h
−$45.1K
tracked
$196.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$40.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket semifinal match between BoomBoys and Team Spirit in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win the match against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win the match against BoomBoys. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf7c2…9b8d2 linked markets · $6.7K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $318 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 72.0¢3m ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Team Spirit@ 69.0¢23m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Spirit@ 64.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY BoomBoys@ 38.0¢4h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $17 → $127 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$51.5K
6h−$45.1K
24h−$45.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.0¢
VWAP 24h35.6¢▼ below by 7.6pp
VWAP 7d35.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$128.7K
30¢
$63.0K
25¢
← now
$5.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$45.0K@ 67.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$35.0K@ 63.6¢
tony19190x733b…7260
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (YES)$32.1K@ 37.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Team Spirit$45.0K
BUY VWAP 67.0¢·1 fill
tony1919Team Spirit$35.0K
BUY VWAP 63.6¢·1 fill
Lakersfan111BoomBoys$32.1K
BUY VWAP 37.0¢·1 fill
MeiGuNiuBiTeam Spirit$10.5K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.