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Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $198.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.9MEvent: Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
50.5¢
YES
49.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection74Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority88Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 10 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:169 trades$1.8M tracked8% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata just now
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.3M·10 wallets(4🐋)·$1.3M gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFUT Esports (NO)$1.0M@ 45¢·Djdjdjekekek

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.3M YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.3M
6h
−$1.3M
tracked
$1.8M

10 verified profitable wallets: −$1.3M YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 88

Since latest whale follow through: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between FURIA and FUT Esports in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA" if FURIA win the match against FUT Esports. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if FUT Esports win the match against FURIA. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $44.5K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $23.1K gross
MysteryPlayerrrrrrrrr2 linked markets · $17.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY FUT Esports@ 52.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY FUT Esports@ 46.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY FUT Esports@ 51.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY FUT Esports@ 51.0¢17m ago
Outcome checks pending

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.3M
6h−$1.3M
24h−$1.3M

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h56.3¢▼ below by 5.8pp
VWAP 7d56.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$330.8K
55¢
$1.4M
50¢
← now
$41.0K
45¢
$8.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$10.0K@ 46.7¢
hurrican0x8718…5040
🐋—20 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$17.6K@ 43.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$29.9K@ 42.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$211.9K@ 44.7¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$1.0M@ 44.8¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$60.4K@ 59.0¢0x381b…4d74🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$15.0K@ 60.0¢
KingOfEsports0x07b1…6dfc
🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$14.8K@ 40.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$88.0K@ 40.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$17.7K@ 61.0¢
dauntlesswitness0xf177…5f6a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$10.3K@ 61.0¢
Popstp0x40da…e947
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$34.5K@ 61.0¢
Sickasulu0xa69d…509b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYFUT Esports (NO)$14.2K@ 40.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYFURIA (YES)$24.0K@ 60.0¢
skyman440x30c7…ac3b
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

DjdjdjekekekFUT Esports$1.2M
BUY VWAP 44.8¢·3 fills
111111111115FUT Esports$116.8K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·4 fills
0x381b…4d74FURIA$60.4K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563FUT Esports$58.6K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·7 fills
SickasuluFURIA$34.5K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
skyman44FURIA$24.0K
BUY VWAP 60.0¢·1 fill
KingOfEsportsFURIA$19.4K
BUY VWAP 59.8¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462FUT Esports$19.2K
BUY VWAP 39.9¢·2 fills
dauntlesswitnessFURIA$17.7K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill
CORGI8FUT Esports$16.6K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.