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Patriots vs. Jaguars

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $191.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $67.5KEvent: Patriots vs. Jaguars
40.5¢
Patriots
59.5¢
Jaguars
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets34Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$27.4K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 296 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Patriots · $1.2K net·2 wallets·$2.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPatriots$19.7K@ 41¢·TKD44

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$602
tracked
$27.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Patriots · $1.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 296 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots".

•If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00PM ET: If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If Jaguars wins, the market will resolve to "Jaguars". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
TKD442 linked markets · $52.0K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $5.1K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $4.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Patriots@ 42.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Patriots; negative values favor Jaguars. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPatriots · $0
6hJaguars · $602
24hPatriots · $26.2K

Patriots price VWAP

Volume-weighted Patriots price. Jaguars fills are converted to the complementary Patriots probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.5¢
VWAP 24h41.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d40.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Patriots price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$29.7K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPatriots$19.7K@ 41.0¢
TKD440x68df…4815
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

TKD44Patriots$25.0K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.