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Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

● quote 43s ago
Geopolitics→Politics→Closes: 14 daysLiquidity: $181.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.6KEvent: Israel closes its airspace by...?
98.0¢
YES
2.0¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$63 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 263 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $10.1K net·6 wallets·$10.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$70.0K@ 95¢·aenews2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$28
tracked
$63

6 verified profitable wallets: YES · $10.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 263 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWSELL YES@ 95.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.4pp6h STALLED -1.2pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.3pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 94.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h STALLED +2.3pp24h STALLED +2.0pp
MARKET SWEEPSELL YES@ 79.0¢10d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +2.0pp24h INVALIDATED -17.5pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $28
24hNO · $18

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current98.0¢
VWAP 24h97.7¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d96.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$277.3K
90¢
$35.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$28.1K
75¢
$54.4K
70¢
$75.7K
65¢
$50.5K
60¢
$53.7K
55¢
$42.8K
50¢
$22.5K
45¢
$8.4K
40¢
$17.6K
35¢
$3.8K
30¢
$1
25¢
$254
20¢
$7.7K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$31.7K
5¢
$71.6K
0¢
$2.2K

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$19.2K@ 96.0¢
FlyingPlaty0x1295…5cfd
🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$70.0K@ 95.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$39.5K@ 95.0¢
ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35
🐋—9 days ago
BUYYES$16.5K@ 94.0¢
ID40x73e3…3239
🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$14.1K@ 74.2¢
JustAProfessor0x57cc…882c
🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$14.9K@ 75.8¢
JustAProfessor0x57cc…882c
🐋—9 days ago
SELLYES$11.0K@ 81.0¢
JustAProfessor0x57cc…882c
🐋—10 days ago
BUYYES$13.1K@ 70.2¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—11 days ago
BUYYES$23.2K@ 79.2¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$13.7K@ 90.8¢
Huludubu0xe738…df65
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$12.4K@ 92.0¢
789798798798790xeb49…693e
🐋—16 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.