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Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 12 daysLiquidity: $76.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $67.5KEvent: Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
95.6¢
YES
4.4¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$28.1K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 131 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$14.7K@ 98¢·0x69d9…73e2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$9.4K
tracked
$28.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $43 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 131 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $9.4K
24hYES · $28.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current95.6¢
VWAP 24h97.1¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d96.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$28.7K
90¢
$3.2K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$14.7K@ 97.8¢0x69d9…73e2🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x69d9…73e2Yes$17.6K
BUY VWAP 97.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.