PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Dota 2: summer bear vs Ducksquad - Game 1 Winner

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 39 minutesLiquidity: $66.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $118.9KEvent: Dota 2: summer bear vs Ducksquad (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B
50.5¢
summer bear
49.5¢
Ducksquad
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets62Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 60%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$48.0K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 40%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 150 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:summer bear · $30.0K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$32.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYsummer bear$13.0K@ 60¢·0xb7e3…1a64

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$16.8K
tracked
$48.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: summer bear · $30.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 60% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 150 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win Game 1 against Ducksquad.

•This market will resolve to "Ducksquad" if Ducksquad win Game 1 against summer bear.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between summer bear and Ducksquad in the EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B, initially scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "summer bear" if summer bear win Game 1 against Ducksquad. This market will resolve to "Ducksquad" if Ducksquad win Game 1 against summer bear. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 24, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb7e3…1a642 linked markets · $173.6K gross
0x4994…3e362 linked markets · $14.2K gross
0x3e85…788b2 linked markets · $6.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY summer bear@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor summer bear; negative values favor Ducksquad. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hsummer bear · $0
6hsummer bear · $16.8K
24hsummer bear · $16.8K

summer bear price VWAP

Volume-weighted summer bear price. Ducksquad fills are converted to the complementary summer bear probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h58.5¢▼ below by 8.0pp
VWAP 7d58.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

summer bear price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$16.3K
55¢
$27.4K
50¢
← now
$4.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYsummer bear$10.0K@ 56.8¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDucksquad$11.3K@ 40.0¢0x4994…3e36🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYsummer bear$13.0K@ 59.9¢0xb7e3…1a64🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: summer bear vs Ducksquad (BO3) - EPL Masters 2 Play-In Group B
50.5¢$346.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?
50.5¢$868.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$834.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Phantom Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D
0.3¢$729.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season
57.5¢$539.5Kpriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?
40.5¢$472.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$379.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xb7e3…1a64summer bear$31.2K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·5 fills
0x4994…3e36Ducksquad$11.3K
BUY VWAP 40.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.